New York Times: Obama's path AC central Syrian bloodbath
- Posted on 2013/10/25 Posted in: Articles and analysis
By Marc Matziti, Robert F.. Worth and Michael R.. Gordan 
WASHINGTON
- In a time when rebel forces retreat in Syria with ITSAM Obama
administration's policy toward the war-torn country are confused, the
Minister of Foreign Affairs John Kerry in the day of the month of June
to provide a document bearing a warning to the operating room in the
White House. Stated
in the document that President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons
against his own people and will be considered al-Assad not to impose the
United States consequences green light to continue using chemical
weapons.
President
Obama has signed a secret order to approve the plan and the CIA to
start arming the Syrian rebels and that in April, months before the
announcement of the plan. However,
that did not ship arms to the rebels who have lost their positions in
the west of Syria, which was overshadowed by the atmosphere of crisis
meeting in the month of June.
But
after hours of debate during which trading of all possible options, the
meeting ended like all previous attempts to define a strategy towards
the Syrian affairs with deeply divided between the Assistant to the
President on how to deal with the civil war that killed 100,000 people.
On
21 August, the prediction came true report warning prepared by the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs in June, where he signed a devastating
attack with poison gas that killed hundreds of civilians, and the United
States was on the verge of military strikes on Syria, however, Obama
amended it after reaching an agreement under the auspices of Russian
isolation Syria's chemical weapons.
Today,
after two years of President Obama's announcement that President Assad
to go, Obama is counting on the success of the Russian initiative, which
needs the cooperation of Assad to implement them.
However,
the chances of causing a diplomatic breakthrough look slim Assad's
position is stronger than ever before, while the revolution recede and
increasingly fragmented and radical Islamic factions are to dominate
them.
In
this report, we take a closer look at the position of the U.S.
administration at this stage, based on numerous interviews with dozens
of current and former officials in the U.S. administration as well as
foreign diplomats and officials in Congress, where the president to show
the positions of the seesaw is very central chaired for more debates
known as controversial among his advisers. This
reflects the president's advisers conflicting motivations about how to
deal with the forces unleashed by the Arab Spring: Do I have to stand by
those struggling against authoritarian governments or should avoid
getting involved in a new war in the chaotic Middle East?
With
the continuation of this controversy, the civilian death toll has risen
steadily and dared the Syrian government on the use of chemical weapons
on a larger scale and strained America's relations with some of its
closest allies.
Some
of Mr. Obama's defenders say that the events of the last six weeks is a
success for coercive diplomacy, President al-Assad has pledged to give
up his weapon under the pressure of the chemical threat to use force,
considering that this is the best you can reached.
"We
have to be realistic about our ability to dictate events in Syria,"
said Benjamin Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, and adds, "In
the absence of any good solution, promoted people for military support
for the opposition as a magic solution, but should be considered as a
solution to a tactical, not strategic "
But
directs some criticism more acute for the U.S. administration,
considering that the paralysis that left her unable to management about
the disposition of unexpected events Calejum gas, which occurred on 21
August. They
say Washington to take decisive action that would strengthen moderate
forces who are fighting against Assad's forces and halt the rise in the
death toll of civilians and the alleviation of fundamentalist Islamic
groups in the rebel ranks and possibly deter the Syrian government of
using chemical weapons.
In
the words of one former senior officials in the White House, "We have
wasted valuable time in the examination of our thoughts and motives, and
therein lies the tragedy."
Ongoing war
In the beginning, the future of Syria, did not seem complicated to such a degree - that no one believes that Assad will survive.
I've
had reports of U.S. intelligence agencies indicate that the days are
numbered in the Lion 18/08/2011 President Obama announced that the time
has come for President Assad step down. There
has been some voices, the scarcity, in which the administration was
concerned about the release of such a statement in the absence of a
strategy to help achieve.
In
spite of the global condemnation of the practices of the regime against
its own people at that time, directing some members of Congress
criticized the U.S. administration for its lack of action, but that
Obama had made clear to his aides from the start that he can not
imagine doing military intervention despite Calls grow the public in
that year to impose a no-fly zone Air to protect Syrian civilians.
This
has led the report submitted by Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, in the operating room at the beginning of 2012 to
exclude the military option, imposing no-fly zone requires at least
70,000 American troops and impose control over 24 hours across the
country.
In
the summer of 2012, and began U.S. intelligence agencies to take
communication to indicate the start of moving chemical weapons and
possibly start mixing in preparation for use. As
a result, Obama held several meetings on 20 August of that year, Obama
said that "the move or the use of a full range of chemical weapons is a
red line for us and this will change any accounts and will upset the
equation."
At
the high-level meeting was held a few days later, the Director of the
CIA David Petraeus plan to begin arming and training small groups of
rebels in the rules of secrecy in Jordan, and has received the plan with
the approval of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but Obama put such a
plan on the table to know the opinion of his aides around it.
That plan won the support of Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Dempsey. But
some people think that the proposals Petraeus high-risk and the pros
slim, has warned Susan Rice of the U.S. involvement in the conflict
mysterious by arming the rebels, which will consume the agenda of the
second term for Obama without achieving any tangible difference on the
battlefield, which marred the chaos.
President
Obama seemed skeptical note as explained in the beginning of the
meeting that he will not take immediate decisions, and warned of random
Mgbat any plan to arm the rebels and face questions about tactics: Who
will get the weapons and how they will be kept out of the hands of
jihadists.
According
to one administration official, who asked not to be named, was Obama's
position on what looks like "We will face a high risk without a clear
plan."
Fears of slipping into a muddy swamp
It
was the example of Libya strongly present in the debates Obama on
Syrian affairs, despite the limited intervention in Libya at the level
of scale and scope and provide legal cover by the United Nations as well
as regional and international support, continued the campaign against
Libya for seven months, was not limited to the protection of civilians,
but expanded objectives of the plan include engineering the overthrow of
Colonel Gaddafi. President
Obama has cited the example of the Libyan repeatedly in debates to
indicate how difficult it is to prevent the expansion of the military
mission in the event of the determination of the United States to take
military action.
In
a time when the President and his advisers are busy arguing about
Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia encyclopedia pumping money and weapons to
the rebels - while urging the Obama administration to join them. While
some officials in the State Department fly into a rage at what they saw
as the process of Off with the absence of the strategy in dealing with
the Syrian affairs.
It
took the administration more than a year for naming a substitute for
Jeffrey Feltman, a veteran diplomat speaks Arabic, was involved tasks
coordinate policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Middle East
before he left office in June 2012 to join the work of the United
Nations. The
ministry has devoted most of her time to discuss the so-called "project
after Assad" and to plan for the political transition process in Syria. However,
many officials in the State Department began to question the
feasibility of this project on the grounds that the hypothesis is based
upon a near collapse of the Assad government may ambulances outdated.
After
Obama win a second term, expect some of those officials and others in
the administration of a change in the White House's position on Syria -
with ending the stalemate. However, those hopes have been dashed in one of the meetings held at the beginning of the month of January. Where
re Michael Morrell, who took the helm of the CIA after the resignation
of Petraeus, put forward a plan of his predecessor, to start arming the
rebels after some modifications to dispel doubts President about the
feasibility of the plan, but Obama merely by expressing his thanks to
everyone and said he wanted to think about it. According to one of the former officials at the White House, Obama seemed not at all convinced of the idea.
The
second presidential term with a new team specialized national security,
including the Foreign Minister, Mr. Kerry, who came to office convinced
a possibility of increased military support for the rebels and the
Syrians to work with Russia to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
Dennis
has also been upgraded Mcdno, deputy national security adviser and a
skeptic usefulness of U.S. intervention in Syria, to the position of
head of the White House staff. Mr.
Mcdno has collided repeatedly with his colleagues because of
disagreement over policy towards Syria, including Samantha Power is
responsible in the White House and an advocate of the idea of moral duty
of States to intervene to prevent mass killings. She reached Ms. Bauer to believe that U.S. efforts to support the rebels in Syria would be pointless.
According
to two of the attendees at one of the meetings, said Ms. Bauer to Mr.
Mcdno "Dennis, if met with Syrian rebels repeatedly as I did, because I
was excited like me", responded by saying, "We just have to agree to
disagree."
Tips for the balance on the battlefield
The
U.S. intelligence assessments came at the beginning of 2013 to the
argument raised by different spy agencies through more than a year, the
new evaluations concluded that exposure to Assad's government was in
danger of collapsing, while Syrian forces gain the upper hand in the
civil war. Slowed
down the pace of defections in the Syrian army, and it was the Iranian
munitions shipments make up for shortfalls in stock and army units. The
opposite is true for the Syrian rebels, were carried ammunition and
supplies with low morale while increasing dominance of the movements
associated with al-Qaeda, such as the victory of the revolution. In addition to all this, there has been growing evidence of the use of Assad's forces of chemical weapons against civilians.
Although
the acquisition of the debate about arming the rebels in Syria, new
urgency, rarely showed Mr. Obama's strong views during a meeting with
senior staff. The
officials said that current and former Obama often seemed unconscious
or patience is excited while listening to the debate to the point that
he was busy to read the messages on your own BlackBerry, or relax and
chewing gum.
In
private conversations with his aides, President Obama described Syria
as one of the demonic crises that may face any head where the risks are
endless and all the choices are bad.
Says
a former senior officials in the White House, "you can read the
position of the President through Tom (Donilon) and Dennis."
And the start of Obama's position change under the influence of the intense pressure being exerted by foreign officials. During
his visit to the Middle East in March, warned Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, President Obama of the occurrence of chemical
weapons in the hands of Syrian Hezbollah group.
The
pressure was greater in the next day during a visit to Jordan, where he
addressed the Obama dinner with King Abdullah II of Jordan. He was accompanied by the U.S. President, Mr. Kerry and Mr. Donilon. Jordan
was straining under the weight of more than 100 thousand Syrian
refugees, prompting the king of Jordan to urge Obama to play a bigger
role in ending the war in Syria.
So
that Jordanian officials have offered to their American counterparts to
allow the CIA to use Jordan as a base to launch attacks from unmanned
aircraft inside Syria - an offer repeatedly rejected by U.S. officials
consistently.
By
April, has been recording a shift in the position of Mr. Donilon in
favor of arming the rebels, Susan Rice, have followed suit in the fall.
However,
Mr. Mcdno, which is one of the most close to President Obama, remained
skeptical, he wonders about the United States' interest in quelling the
violence in Syria. While
escorting a group of senior members of Congress on a trip to the naval
base at Guantanamo Bay in early June, said Mr. Mcdno that a status quo
in Syria to keep Iran in a fixed position for years. In
subsequent discussions, Dennis said that the fighting in Syria between
Hezbollah and al-Qaeda is in America's interest, according to officials
in Congress.
And
shift the debate from the question of whether arming the rebels should
the Syrians to the question of how it will be arming them. However,
the discussions about the Pentagon commissioned this project has been
forwarded on the shelf because of a lot of legal obstacles in the way of
the United States in its efforts to overthrow the government, public
and sovereign. Therefore, President Obama decided to make the training program Syrian rebels "in accordance with a secret," run by the CIA.
In
addition to the legal caveats, there were additional reasons prompted
to make this program a secret, and those are the reasons that there
should be a compelling ground to deny what happened in the event of such
weapons in the hands of the front of the victory.
Lag
Since
the signing of months ago, Obama on the decision in April without
taking any step, and wait for the White House even seek the approval of
Congress to fund the secret mission, which form further evidence of
Obama's hesitation and concern.
On
June 10, painted sheet secret belonging to the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs bleak picture of the situation of the Syrian Vmkasp rebels
evaporate and moderate opposition - and Salim Idris, including - falling
apart, with out large areas of control, and the steadfastness of Assad
indefinitely, and neighboring countries threatened by the danger, with
the depth of Iran, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias.
In
light of this failure that achieved by Obama's policy, a senior adviser
to Obama to hold meeting on June 12 in the operating room. The
Rhodes in the next day for a meeting to inform the journalists about
Obama's decision - the decision was actually taken two months before the
meeting as a secret. Rhodes
where he said that the United States will provide additional military
support to the rebels while refraining from saying explicitly that it
will arming and training.
Sudden shift
After
weeks of intensive work Kerry on Capitol Hill to overcome doubts about
the proposed plan, and agreed to the intelligence committees on the
management plan in the supply of light weapons with refusal send
anti-aircraft weapons. With
the occurrence of the chemical attack on 21 August, Syria became for
the first time at the top of the agenda of President Obama.
Within hours, he began to administration officials point to the ongoing preparations to launch a military strike. But
after the British refused to participate in such a process Obama
decided suddenly to return to Congress to get the support to launch a
strike, which some attributed to believe that Obama is still not
convinced of the usefulness of the intervention.
He
says a White House official said Obama decided to return to Congress
for permission military strike against al-Assad for fear of provoking
members of Congress and the failure to obtain their support in other
thorny issues related to foreign policy, most notably Iran.
Obama
told Senator John McCain and Senator Lindsey Graham during a meeting
with them in the Oval Office that the first group of 50 rebels and that
have been trained by the CIA in Jordan will enter Syria soon to train
larger numbers of rebels, and Oalmanma Obama about his desire to do the
agency's own intelligence training activities in public To speed up the
process, but the Obama Hamas quickly subsided again, and a week after
his meeting with Obama Balsenaturin stuck to the Russian initiative to
disarm the Syrian chemical weapons.
With
continued training operations in Jordan, officials say that there is no
current plans to expand the mission and put it under the control of the
Pentagon. It
is feared the White House to lead such a move and public efforts to
undermine the diplomatic initiative to get rid of stocks of chemical
weapons and the peace conference.
During
the confirmation hearing on his appointment this month, he said,
Michael Lumpkin, the Obama administration candidate for a position in
charge of special operations at the Pentagon, said that the training
program which is run by the rebels and the CIA is not enough to overturn
the balance of power on the ground in Syria.
Contributed to the report: Marc Andler and Eric Schmidt.
Source: The New York Times U.S.
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